Asymmetric Violations of the Spanning Hypothesis
Raul Riva  1@  , Gustavo Freire  2@  
1 : Northwestern University [Chicago, Ill. USA]
2 : Erasmus University Rotterdam

We document that the Spanning Hypothesis, which is implied by most macro-finance term structure models, is violated asymmetrically along the U.S. yield curve. After controlling for information in bond prices, we find that macroeconomic variables help predict short-maturity bond returns with statistical and economic significance, while the evidence for long-maturity bonds is much weaker. To understand this pattern, we provide a new decomposition of bond excess returns in terms of innovations of short-, medium- and long-run factors of the yield curve. We show that, in fact, macro data only contains unspanned predictive information about the short-run factor. This extra predictability varies over time and is stronger when inflation is high.


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